Welcome
to the September 24, 2008 issue
View MONEYLETTER Hotline
as a PDF (click icon):
or keep reading...
The stock market, not to mention the economy, is
now in the hands of Congress. The only thing that
matters is the fate of the financial sector bailout
plan. There is general agreement that the plan will
ultimately pass, in one form or another. One person
who believes that is the case is Warren Buffet as
he made his company’s $5 billion injection
into Goldman Sachs.
The market is right, in our opinion. The bailout
plan substantially shortens the pain of the period
we are now going through. Without it, the financial
sector will continue the turmoil we witnessed over
the last month. This is not to say that the adoption
of the plan will suddenly transform the market environment.
But it will allow investors to look ahead and to
base their investments on the assumption that we
will have a functioning credit market. With that,
investors can begin to make investment decisions
on the basis of price-earnings ratios, the outlook
for interest rates and other economic and market
factors.
Chairman Bernanke today briefly outlined his take
on the economic outlook. It was not pretty. Are you
surprised? The market losses and volatility over
the past few weeks have shaken confidence for both
business and consumers. As we see it, once Congress
acts, the Federal Reserve will be cutting interest
rates, and another stimulus package will be in the
works. We believe this will change the outlook and
spur a market recovery. Stocks are cheap.
There is no change in our recommended allocations.
New Fund Ratings – For domestic stock
funds, two funds are now rated Buy: Morningstar Small
Value and Wells Fargo Advantage Small Cap Disciplined.
Fidelity Focused Stock is now rated Hold. Janus Enterprise
is now rated Sell. For international stock funds,
two funds are now rated Buy: PowerShares International
Dividend Achievers and S&P 150 Topix. Two funds
are now rated Hold: Allianz NFJ International Value
and Matthews Asia Growth & Income. There are
no other changes.
Janus Enterprise is in the Moneyletter Conservative
portfolio. We will switch it into Russell 2000 Value
(an ETF, Ticker:IWN)
The Stock Market – Despite the terrible
market of this year, we sincerely believe we will
see higher prices over the next six months.
The Bond Market –
The Select Portfolio – Powershares
Water Resources (PHO) is to be sold and switched
into Russell 2000 Value (IWN).
The next Hotline is scheduled for Wednesday, October
1st at 7pm.
Back