Welcome
to the July 30, 2008 issue
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We are recommending the sale of US Global Eastern
Europe in the Moneyletter Venturesome and Moderate
portfolios. We are recommending the sale prematurely
because the risks of the fund have suddenly risen.
The fund has a substantial allocation to Russian
equities, and the Russian government, after a speech
given by Mr. Putin late last week, appears once again
to have a specific, large private company in its
sights. It seems that the rules concerning private
property are flexible in that country. We do not
believe that it is prudent to maintain a position
in a fund heavily invested in Russia. We will substitute
Royce Global Value for the Eastern European fund
in both portfolios.
Turning to the market, this has been a most confusing
week. The market has moved up and down in large moves
without any apparent news or event calling for a
large response. Monday’s huge sell-off occurred
out of the blue. But then the sharp rally of the
last two days equally had no obvious cause. To us
it suggests that the market is in the process of
making a bottom. As we have said, we firmly doubt
that the rally will develop into the next bull market,
but the rally could lift the market to a higher plateau
for trading over the rest of this year. In any case,
we are encouraged by the market action and the results
so far of this earnings season.
There is no change in our recommended asset allocation
New Fund Ratings – For domestic stock
funds, Royce Low Priced Stock is now rated Buy. Three
funds are now rated Hold: Aston/Optimum Midcap N,
Laudus Rosenberg L/S, and Fidelity Convertible Securities.
Five funds are now rated Sell: American Century Growth,
American Century Vista, Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index
ETF, Brandywine Blue, and U.S. Global Holmes Growth.
For international stock funds, Emerging Markets 50
ADR is now rated Hold. Four funds are now rated Sell:
Metzler/Payden Europe Emerging Markets, Third Avenue
International Value, U.S. Global Eastern Europe,
and Vanguard International Growth. There are no other
changes.
Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth is in the Vanguard family
Conservative portfolio. We will switch the fund into
Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF. Vanguard International
Growth is in the Vanguard Venturesome portfolio.
We will switch the fund into Vanguard International
Value.
The Economy –
The Stock Market –
Bond Market –
The Select Portfolio – There is no
change for this portfolio.
The next Hotline is scheduled for Wednesday, August
6th at 7pm.
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